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  Long Range Forecast Details Summer Rain Chances

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Long Range Forecast Details Summer Rain Chances

Reporting
Dave Aguilera

The new summer forecast for Colorado from the Climate Prediction Center is not a slam dunk, but, summer storms may come through with moisture for the eastern part of the state.

May so far has been a great month for moisture. As of the 15, we are above normal for this point of the month!

And though it's not a huge amount, about a 10th of an inch, it is still a good sign that in what should be our wettest month we are getting that much needed moisture.

The new 30 and 90 day outlooks for temperature and precipitation are out. These outlooks are issued once each month near the middle of each month, by the CPC in Maryland.

These outlooks can give us an indication of the weather trend is leaning to be normal, above normal, or below normal for both temperature and precipitation.

Sometimes, as is the case this time around, these outlooks may list equal chances for being normal, above or below for the next 30 to 90 days. Meaning = there is not a strong trend in the climate models leaning one way or the other. So for Denver and the Front Range we have an E.C. on the summer outlook, equal chances for normal, above normal or below normal temperature and precipitation.

So then we have to turn to other models and products to give us an indication of the next few months.

A look at the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, which is another tool we can use to predict the drought tendency for part of the summer, shows: dry areas of northeast and southeast Colorado should have improving conditions from May 15 through August. This also includes some of the high plains pushing into eastern Nebraska and Kansas.

On average June through August are typically one of the wetter periods of the year. This might be one indicator that our summer thunderstorms, including the mid-summer monsoon, may boost our rainfall numbers this year.

Additional Resources

The CPC issues the Seasonal United States Drought Outlook each month in conjunction with the Thursday release of the long-lead temperature and precipitation outlooks near the middle of the month. Here is the link to the drought outlook map: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

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