Reality Check

• Sep 11, 2007 1:57 pm US/Mountain
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  Petraeus Iraq Report Contained Few Surprises

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Petraeus Iraq Report Contained Few Surprises

WASHINGTON (CBS4) ― The long awaited report from Gen. David Petraeus on the state of Iraq contained few surprises, a sobering assessment and some points of modest optimism.

Petraeus: "The military objectives of the surge are in large part being met."

For example the general says the surge in U.S. troops has helped reduce both attacks on American forces and civilian casualties in some of Baghdad's deadliest neighborhoods.

Gen. Petraeus: "Though the improvements have been uneven across Iraq, the overall number of security incidents has declined in 8 of the past 12 weeks."

The claim seems to be true, although some critics suggest the definitions of certain types of violence have been massaged to make the statistics look better. Having said that, fewer civilian casualties, fewer attacks on Americans, and a significant reduction in violence in Iraq's Anbar province are positive developments.

In fact the general says enough military goals have been met that he's recommending a draw down of about 30,000 troops to pre-surge levels by next summer. Still the general admits the picture is far from rosy.

Gen. Petraeus: "The fundamental source of conflict in Iraq is competition among ethnic and sectarian communities for power and resources. This competition will take place ... the question is will the competition take place more or less violently."

That's the $450 billion question, and that's where you'll find most of the spin. The spin doctors on both sides of this debate are rolling out massive PR campaigns, from groups aligned with the president hoping to turn the modest tactical gains of Iraq into a bigger political victory, to the snarky antics of the liberal anti-war group Moveon.org which put out a newspaper ad calling Petraeus, "General Betray-us."

A recent CBS News poll shows that while more Americans believe the surge is helping than hurting, 45 percent believe it's had no impact. And a new BBC poll shows 70 percent of Iraqis surveyed believe security has actually gotten worse since the surge started.

Summary of CBS News/New York Times Poll

U.S. Surge has failed: Iraqi Poll

Still the bottom line is the general, like the president, believes there's progress in Iraq, and that losing this war does far more to hurt U.S. national security than continuing to slog it out. Expect that message to continue despite skepticism from Congress and most Americans, even as the troops begin to draw down.

Other Source Articles:

Petraeus 'Betray Us' ad is group's 'shock and awe'

Lieberman defends Petraeus against anti-war critics

Petraeus suggests partial troop withdrawal possible by summer of '08

House Democrats Cite Failures in Iraq as Petraeus Hearing Opens

Can the Democrats Say Yes?

Petraeus cannot salvage a debacle

Slow Progress Being Made in Iraq, Petraeus Tells Congress

Petraeus Doesn't Cook the Books

General Eyes Troop Reduction in Iraq

2 polls suggest grim view of surge

Summary of results from ABC News Washington Post Poll

Most Are Skeptical of Petraeus Report

Petraeus: Troop Drawdown By Summer '08

(© MMVII CBS Television Stations, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.)