Oct 24, 2008 10:00 pm US/Mountain
CBS4 Poll: Economy Gives Obama 12 Point Lead
by Michael Choy, cbs4denver.com
DENVER (CBS4) ―
-
-
Justin Sullivan, Robert Spencer/Getty Images
Barack Obama leads John McCain by 12 percentage points among registered Colorado voters in a CBS4/Rocky Mountain News poll released Friday night. The 12 point lead is a drastic change from the 3 point lead McCain held two months earlier.
Fifty-two percent of voters polled between Oct. 21 and Oct. 23 said they support Democratic candidate Obama and his running mate, Sen. Joe Biden. McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin had the support of 40 percent.
Pollsters pointed to one driving force behind the changing numbers: the economy.
"The beginning of October (was) not a happy time in American history and voters are sort of internalizing the financial crisis," said Lori Weigel of Public Opinion Strategies, which conducted the poll.
"Obama had the rising tide in the sense that he has been able to get on the surfboard of the economy plus voter registration," said Rick Ridder, a Democratic political strategist with RPI Strategies & Research in Denver. "We were going to have a very close election here 4 to 6 weeks ago. You can literally track the Obama level of support to the S&P 500 value as it dropped."
Weigel said between the August poll and now, consumer confidence in the United States had one of its largest drops ever. An incumbent party usually doesn't retain the presidency with consumer confidence at the level it is at now.
During that time, Obama has increased his level of support among all demographics.
"Every single sub-group is decidedly more Democratic today in Colorado," Weigel said.
"Doubts about bringing in white women and Hispanics to Obama fold have been answered," Ridder said.
McCain still maintains a lead among white men in Colorado.
Despite the significant overall lead for Obama in Colorado, both campaigns continue to put time and effort into winning the state with 10 days to go before Election Day. McCain had three events on Friday in Colorado and Obama is planning two stops in the state Sunday.
"There are certainly scenarios where you can win the Electoral College without Colorado, but I think Colorado is still an important state in the red column," Weigel said.
"You have to play somewhere," Ridder said of the McCain visits. "Clearly the Obama campaign considers it very important. So you don't go to places that you know you're going to win. So it is still in play."
Eighty-three percent of those polled said the country was on the wrong track. Eleven percent said it was headed in the right direction.
"The overwhelming majority of voters being negative, that has some implications at the presidential level," said Weigel.
"Presidential campaigns come down to one of two things: change or stay the same," Ridder said.
The analysts said the poll results and the feeling among voters present a clear challenge to McCain's campaign.
"Difficult war, a pessimistic electorate that is laser focused on the economy as an issue," Weigel said. "This is not running up hill. This is downhill skiing uphill."
Time is also a challenge for McCain. One-third of Colorado voters in the poll said they have already voted. Among those who said they already voted, 54 percent said they supported Obama. Forty-one percent said they supported McCain.
"When you start thinking about what you have to overcome, you have to take the Universe down by a minimum of a third," Ridder said of the change McCain would have to make among voters who have not yet cast their ballot if he wants to win Colorado.
The poll found seven in 10 Colorado voters said Obama would win the national presidential election. Fifty-five percent said they were more enthusiastic about voting compared with previous elections. Thirty-two percent said they felt about the same.
The poll surveyed 500 registered voters in Colorado. It has a margin of error of plus/minus 4.33 percent.
Additional Resources: Log on to cbs4denver.com from 10:30 to 11:30 a.m. on Tuesday, Oct. 28 to watch a special Webcast with a pollster who conducted the survey and a political analyst. We'll take your email questions during the hour about the poll results and the final days of the campaign.
(© MMIX CBS Television Stations, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.)
Embed our Politics widget to get our news on your site
Upcoming CBS4 Campaign '08 Election Coverage 
Click to enlarge
Woman Passes Driver's Test On 950th Try
Slideshow: Colorado's Weirdest House
Stumble It!
