Politics

by Michael Choy, cbs4denver.com
FORT COLLINS, Colo. (CBS4) ― Democrats have a real chance this year at beating Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave in the state's 4th Congressional District after several failed attempts. The opportunity can, in part, be attributed to changing demographic changes in the district's heavily populated Weld and Larimer Counties.

"Registration numbers are one of the few indicators we have of real political change over the short term and it has been a pretty incredible bump if you look at trends over time," said Kyle Saunders, associate professor of political science at Colorado State University in Fort Collins. "The changes indicate a real momentum for the Democratic party."

National Congressional campaign committees for both parties have poured money into the CD4 race after strategists eyed the district as a battleground between Republicans and Democrats in the fight for power in the House of Representatives. Democrats hope to increase their majority. Republicans are looking to hold on to as many seats as possible.

Democrat Angie Paccione lost to Musgrave in 2006 by 3 percentage points after more substantial wins by the Republican in the two previous elections. The shrinking margins of victory for Musgrave could be attributed in part to the change in demographics in Weld and Larimer Counties, Saunders suggested.

"There are a lot of new families moving in to the district," said Ben Marter, Markey's campaign spokesman. "I think that certainly changes the dynamic."

"Frankly, you don't see that much more of an increase of Democrats over Republicans. You do you see an increase in independents and unaffiliateds and frankly that's a great opportunity because Marilyn is the person who has the bipartisan record and the willingness to stand up not only to the other party and to her own party when they're wrong," Jason Thielman, Musgrave's campaign manager countered.

Musgrave voted against the Economic Rescue Plan in both forms during the past several weeks, bucking GOP leadership attempts to help get the measure passed.

But Saunders believes Musgrave's incumbent status during the tough economic times will also make her more vulnerable in the election.

"At the end of the day, I think the national trend of giving the advantage to the Democrats is also playing out here," he said.

Musgrave and her surrogates have been attacking hard for weeks in hopes of creating questions about Markey, accusing her of inappropriately helping her family business get government contracts when she worked for Sen. Ken Salazar.

"(Musgrave) is fighting a very forceful campaign, she's trying to win this seat," Saunders said.

"The reality is that Betsy Markey either divested to her husband in which case she's lied about being a woman-owned business and her company received contracts as a woman-owned business in violation of the law, or she lied about divesting, in which case she violated the government ethics rules with regard to government employees getting government contracts," Thielman said. "I'll go through the documents with anybody."

"All of the attacks that have been leveled against Betsy have been disproven," Marter said. "It has been widely reported and widely discredited. The General Services Administration, the federal government has said that there was no wrongdoing. The U.S. Senate Ethics Committee has said similarly that there was no wrongdoing. So the attack is moot."

Additional Resources:

CBS4's Raj Chohan has been investigating the attacks against Markey as part of his ongoing Reality Check series. Read and watch the first report. Read and watch his second report.

Colorado Voter Registration Data

Larimer Co. Voter Registration Data

Weld Co. Voter Registration Data

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