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College Class Looks At Election Expectations

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Oct 30, 2008 1:34 pm US/Mountain

College Class Looks At Election Expectations

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 Upcoming CBS4 Campaign '08 Election Coverage
by Michael Choy, cbs4denver.com
DENVER (CBS4) ― Six days before Election Day, Tom Knecht took 25 minutes during his general studies political science class at the University of Denver to talk about the final days of the presidential campaign. Students didn't disappoint, showing a wide range of knowledge about the issues in play in the waning days of the election cycle.

Knecht, an assistant professor of political science, asked his class if the election was over based on all the expectations. Don't the polls say Barack Obama will beat John McCain?

"We've learned that public opinion doesn't mean anything, so really until the votes are in and the Electoral College votes cast, we can't be sure," said one student.

Another student said the so-called Bradley Effect would likely become a problem for Obama.

"I know in some primaries when (Obama) would be 5 points ahead, he'd only win by 2 or 3," said Virginia Woodfork, a junior at DU. "So some people are counting the fact that he didn't win by as much as the polls said to that fact."

Knecht pointed to the New Hampshire primary as a prime example of what Woodfork was talking about.

Cameron Lewis, a DU sophomore, countered that there was more in play in the New Hampshire loss for Obama than the Bradley Effect, including the results of the Iowa caucus.

Woodfork later said she had learned that the trailing candidate in the final days of an election often gets more support from undecided voters. One of her classmates said experience will also play a role in the last hours before ballots are cast.

"I feel like the experience level will play a pretty significant role this late also," Ian McNab, a freshmen said. "McCain has a lot of political experience where as Obama is relatively new to the national scene. So I think that will have a pretty decisive effect."

Knecht asked if that would have played out already in the campaign.

"I think they're still hammering out certain issues," McNab said. "I think there are a lot of things that are relatively similar between the parties. I think people are going to have to look to things like experience or character when it gets down to the wire."

Knecht then entered into a discussion of what variables political scientists might use to predict who will win a presidential election. He showed one model with a solid track record that took into account the economy, the approval of the incumbent and a factor called "time for change." Students agreed all those factors pointed to an Obama win in this election.

The session on the presidential race ended with a look at the effect of advertising, in particular, Obama's upcoming 30 minutes paid commercial that evening.

"I think the shorter commercial clips are more effective, but Obama has to spend money somehow," Knecht said. "Why not do an infomercial?"

Students wondered if the 30 minute campaign spot would have much of an impact on undecided voters.

Knecht suggested the infomercial would have little overall effect on the campaign's final days.

"I would just be kind of surprised if a whole lot of undecided people tuned in to watch this," he said. "But that's just a guess."

(© MMIX CBS Television Stations, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.)

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