Nov 14, 2007 7:53 am US/Mountain
Fed To Boost Number Of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (AP) ―
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The Federal Reserve will begin issuing its economic forecasts more often and in more detail, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced Wednesday. (File)
AP
The Federal Reserve will begin issuing its economic forecasts more often and in more detail to lift some of the mystery surrounding the central bank and improve communications with Wall Street and Main Street, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced Wednesday.
Specifically, the Fed's economic projections will be released four times a year, rather than the current twice a year. The projection horizon will be extended to three years from two years. The forecasts, which have been made for nearly 30 years, will continue to include the pace of economic growth, the unemployment rate and inflation. However, more details about Fed policymakers' thinking about future economic conditions and risks to their outlook will accompany the projections.
The first expanded set of projections will be released Tuesday together with the minutes of the Fed's October meeting, Bernanke said.
The announcement marks the biggest move yet by Bernanke to put his imprint on the Federal Reserve. He took the helm in February 2006, succeeding longtime chairman Alan Greenspan. One of Bernanke's signature issues since taking over the Fed has been an effort to make the institution -- considered one of the most mysterious in Washington -- more open.
Greenspan did make progress on that front in his 18 1/2 years, but Bernanke has sought to open the door further, providing investors, businesses and individuals with more insights into the thinking of Fed policymakers.
Doing that, Bernanke said, helps the Fed do its job: keeping the economy and inflation on an even keel.
Improving the public's understanding of the Fed's objectives and strategies reduces uncertainty, allowing businesses and people to make more informed financial decisions, Bernanke explained. If investors have a better understanding of how Fed policy is likely to respond to incoming information, stock prices and bond yields will tend to respond to economic data in ways that further the central bank's objectives, Bernanke added.
Bernanke called the changes, announced Wednesday, an "important advance" in the Fed's communications strategy.
"The changes will provide a more timely insight into the (Fed's) outlook, will help households and businesses better understand and anticipate how our policy decisions respond to incoming information and will enhance our accountability for the decisions we make," the Fed chief said in a speech to a conference on monetary policy held at the Cato Institute.
At the time of Bernanke's speech, a separate statement outlining the changes was released by the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's chief policymaking group.
As part of the Fed's effort to provide more economic information, policymakers will make forecasts of both overall inflation -- which affects and is closely watched by consumers -- as well as "core" inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, Bernanke said. Adding a projection on overall inflation, which covers a wide variety of goods and services, is especially important to consumers as they make financial decisions, prepare household budgets and plan for the future.
"Ultimately, households and businesses care about the overall, or headline, rate of inflation," Bernanke said.
Greater insights into Fed policymakers' thinking also will be revealed with the expanded projections, Bernanke said.
"Accompanying the numerical projections will be a discussion -- a projections narrative if you will -- that summarizes participants' views of the major forces shaping the outlook, discusses the sources of risk to that outlook and describes the dispersion of views among policymakers," Bernanke said.
Providing this information, Bernanke said, "should help improve the public's understanding of the rationale for the current stance" on interest rates and any changes to that stance.
In 2008, the expanded projections will be published in the minutes released after the Fed's meeting on interest rates. The forecasts will be included in the minutes of the Fed meetings scheduled for January, April, June and October, Bernanke said. The projections will continue to be described in the Fed's twice a year economic report to Congress, he said.
In his speech, Bernanke did not discuss the future course of interest rates. The Fed in late October sliced a key interest rate to 4.50 percent. It marked the second cut in six weeks to help the economy survive the strains of a severe housing slump and a credit crunch. At that meeting, Bernanke and his colleagues hinted that those two rates cut may be all that is needed to keep the economic expansion intact, although some investors and economists are still looking for another rate cut at the next meeting, on Dec. 11.
In discussing the Fed's communications strategy, Bernanke talked about the Fed's exploration of an "inflation target," that is numerically spelling out the acceptable bounds of inflation. The Fed doesn't have an official target now, although policymakers have expressed interest in seeing core inflation -- excluding food and energy prices -- hover in an annual range of 1 percent to 2 percent. That's been referred to as Fed policymakers' "comfort zone."
Although Bernanke said the Fed's communications strategy is evolving, suggesting further changes could be made in the future, he acknowledged that "some aspects of inflation targeting may be less well suited to the Federal Reserve's mandate and policy practice."
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