Aug 29, 2008 6:33 pm US/Mountain
Expert: DNC In Denver Doesn't Mean Obama Wins Colo
Good Question: Does Having The DNC Deliver Colorado To Obama?
DENVER (CBS4) ―
"I think the chances are good that Coloradoans will vote for Obama," said one man Friday.
"I think all we learned is that they put on a great show," said another.
Turns out, in spite of the tens of millions spent in Colorado and the choice of the West for a convention location is no guarantee of victory in Colorado for Barack Obama.
University of Colorado Professor of Political Science Ken Bickers and a colleague looked at what happened in the states where conventions were held.
"So we went back over 12 election cycles in the post war period to see what difference it makes in the general election vote," says Bickers. "And the short answer is that we don't find an effect. The votes in those states are still about the same things that votes are about in all of the other states. Which is the condition of the economy, whether there's job growth in that state. How people feel about the economic future. It's not based on whether the convention is in that state."
Rep. Diana DeGette, D-Colo., points out that conventions have often been held in partisan states.
"For instance when the Republicans went to New York, that didn't make a difference for them because New York is a Democratic state for the most part."
New York was the place for the RNC in 2004. DeGette holds out more hope for Colorado.
"And so what you had here is you had the Democratic convention in a swing state, which is unusual. Which is why I think we might get some bump from it because it excites the base and it gives the message to the undecided voters."
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