Sep 4, 2007 11:17 pm US/Mountain
Colorado Forecaster Calls For 6 More Hurricanes
DENVER (AP) ―
Hurricane expert William Gray downgraded his 2007 Atlantic storms forecast slightly Tuesday, but he still predicted above-average activity for the remaining three months of the season, with six more hurricanes, three of them major.
One of those hurricanes lashed the coast of Honduras on Tuesday as a powerful Category 5 storm named Felix, said forecaster Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team at Colorado State University.
Felix later weakened to Category 2.
Klotzbach said a combination of a weak La Nina and low pressure readings in the Atlantic indicated an active 2007 season remains likely.
Weak La Nina systems usually have fewer wind shears, which can tear developing storms apart, he said.
The first two months of the Atlantic hurricane season, June and July, had average activity with two named storms but no hurricanes. August was about average, with one hurricane, Dean, which grew into a Category 5 storm before hitting Central America.
Gray has been forecasting hurricanes for more than two decades, and his predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others in coastal areas.
Before the start of the June-through-November Atlantic season, his team forecast 17 named storms and nine hurricanes. The team revised that forecast slightly downward in August to 15 named storms and eight hurricanes.
Klotzbach said the team's 2007 forecast is shaping up so far as more accurate than last year's.
In 2006, the team forecast nine hurricanes, five of them major. Instead, there were just five hurricanes, two of them major.
"Every time when you bust, you learn some stuff," Klotzbach said. "So far, the season is kind of evolving the way we expected it to."
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