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Apr 22, 2008 8:47 pm US/Mountain
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New Economy Standards Will Change What We Drive
Good Question: How Will We Get There?
DENVER (CBS4) ―
With the announcement Tuesday that the nation's fleet of new cars and trucks would be required to achieve 31.6 miles per gallon by 2015 and 35 miles per gallon by 2020, few people were unhappy.
"I commute to Denver from Wyoming four days a week, so anything would be helpful," said one mom filling up an SUV.
But there's a question about what we'll drive.
"There will be more of a demand-shift toward smaller vehicles," said Tony Markel, a senior engineer in the Center for Transportation Technologies and Systems at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden.
Markel said expect vehicles that are smaller and lighter. He expects more changes in engines: cylinders that shut down when not in use, alterations in air intake valves -- redesigns really, that make their ability to feed engines needed air more efficient. He believes engines will get smaller.
"If they really want to downsize that engine, then they move to hybrid electric," he said.
Markel likes the hybrid gasoline electric plug he showed CBS4. It had solar cells on the roof to generate even more electric power.
"That's what this vehicle does is; it combines the benefits of having an electricity grid everywhere in the country pretty much. Being able to refuel those vehicles with electricity; use electricity to displace a lot of the petroleum that we would use, but still having the gasoline engine."
But there's still a cost factor.
"It is an expensive technology, so manufacturers will have to work hard on reducing costs of that technology."
As with a lot of things that will change.
"Right now, the manufacturers are moving towards the biofuels, the alternative fuels; the ethanol," he said.
Biofuels like biodiesel, in wide use in Europe. Cars get 20 to 30 percent better mileage.
Expect more E85, which is 85 percent ethanol. But there would have to be some kind of government credit. They burn cleaner, but they burn more.
"The mileage is slightly reduced, but the key aspect here is (achieving) petroleum displacement."
Among the technologies NREL is looking at is the development of cellulosic ethanol. Right now, ethanol produced in the U.S. is made from corn.
"Key in achieving the real benefits of ethanol is producing cellulosic ethanol, which our lab (focuses) a lot of our effort on," Markel said.
They are trying to make cost-effective ethanol from switch grass. But he said not to expect it until about 2020.
"We're still years away," he said.
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