May 9, 2009 4:14 pm US/Mountain
The Flu Is Still Out There, Waiting
Good Question: Is The Flu Threat Gone?
Written by Alan Gionet
DENVER (CBS4) ―
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Alan Gionet Asks A Good Question
CBS
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Good Question, a regular part of CBS4 News at 10 p.m., is an opportunity for Alan Gionet to drill past the basic facts of a story and give it some depth & perspective. See more Good Question reports.
With the news about flu conditions improving, it makes you wonder what's next.
"Does it just crawl over the mountain and die, where does it go?" asked one woman.
"The virus certainly doesn't go away but it goes away from circulating in the population," said Veteran's Administration and CU Denver School of Medicine infectious diseases researcher Dr. Edward Janoff.
The flu virus doesn't go dormant and re-emerge; it gets passed around, but to a far lesser degree in warmer months than it does in winter flu season.
The flu virus has a moderate survival rate on surfaces. On the hands says Janoff it may live for 5, 10 or 15 minutes. On hard surfaces it may last a day. Viruses like the norovirus or the polio virus can last a long time.
We wondered just why there's a flu season. Experts have a pretty good idea.
"We think that one reason is that the virus survives in cold, cooler temperatures, in dry temperatures," said Janoff. "We think that also in the winter that it's more crowded and there's more transmission in that way."
Experts also believe that in the drier conditions of winter, the virus remains airborne longer.
The virus in a water droplet will fall to the ground sooner, thus reducing its chances to be breathed in where it can cause disease.
The virus hasn't even left the population. "Some people will not show signs of disease and yet when you check their blood you'll find antibodies to the virus, capable of neutralizing the virus," said Dr. Dan Stinchcomb of Fort Collins bioscience company Inviragen.
"So they've obviously been exposed, they've developed a very good immune response, and a quick enough immune response that they didn't get sick," said Stinchcomb.
The fear about this virus is that it will kick up again later this year when flu season comes around again.
Viruses keep moving around the globe and changing as they go. "And each year they're a little bit different because we watch what's coming over from Southeast Asia and by the time it gets here we've prepared new vaccines," said Janoff.
"Then it goes into the Southern Hemisphere." Flu season in the Southern Hemisphere is the opposite of ours.
Experts are worried that the H1N1 virus will come back like the worst known flu epidemic in history. "The concern is that as happened in 1918, there could be a second wave of virus where in 1918 they had a mild initial exposure, the second wave came back much more virulent much more aggressive." Tens of millions died in 1918.
That's why health experts are laying the groundwork for producing a vaccine. But they will consider, cost, risk of complications and the reality of the threat before going ahead with a vaccine for this virus.
A similar swine flu threat in the 1970s never materialized, leaving many to believe a mistake had been made in creating a mass vaccination program.
And then there's the vaccination issue. The way in which we make and mass produce vaccines hasn't changed over the years. There's a push now to move away from using eggs to create the vaccine. There can be shortages and some people are allergic to eggs.
Stinchcomb's company is one of those working on a new breed of vaccine. "Our interest is to try to find a vaccine that'll give broader based response, so upon vaccination it would not only protect against only the avian flu or only H1N1, it would protect against both," said Stinchcomb.
They are using the small pox-virus. "We're re-engineering that virus to express flu antigens. So now that very successful vaccine could be adapted through genetic techniques, through modern biotechnology to protect against avian flu and maybe this new H1N1 as well," said Stinchcomb.
He claims things are going well. "We do know that in animal models, we can completely protect against influenza infections."
But such vaccines still need further development and human trials before they're released to the public. When?
Stinchcomb thinks four to six years to the public.
Meantime a vaccine, if produced for the H1N1 for next flu season, may be your best protection.
(© MMIX CBS Television Stations, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.)
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