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Jun 17, 2007 7:38 pm US/Mountain
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Global Warming Good For Colorado Skiing?
By David Frey, Aspen Daily News
Prepared for cbs4denver.com by Matthew J. Buettner, Web Producer.
COPPER MOUNTAIN, Colo. (AP) ―
It's hard for ski resorts to see a bright side to global warming trends that are expected to rob the mountains of snow, but for one global warming expert, Colorado resorts may fare better than some.
"It's not all bleak, especially for Colorado," said Robert Henson, a writer and editor at the University Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder and the author of "The Rough Guide to Climate Change."
"There are really serious risks, I think to the ski industry in general, as well as here," he said. "But I think if you plan carefully and market yourself in the right way, you can position yourself well." Henson told a group of Colorado ski representatives this week at the industry group Colorado Ski Country USA's annual meeting that the outlook for Colorado in a warmer future isn't entirely clear. But if things look bad for Colorado, they could be worse everywhere else.
In Colorado's favor is its altitude, Henson said. Many other resorts, from East Coast destinations to Canada's Whistler to many European ski resorts, are at lower altitudes. As higher temperatures are expected to push the snow line higher and higher, he said, those other resorts could lose their viability, leaving Colorado with a bigger chunk of the international ski business.
Every degree change up in temperature is expected to push the snow level 30 feet higher, Henson said. By the 2020s, that could mean a 300-foot higher snowline in Colorado.
"We are going to warm," he said. "The season should shorten." But ski seasons may disappear altogether for other resorts. He pointed to a study for Scotland's Halifax General Insurance that predicted "the beginning of the end of the traditional ski holiday" by 2030.
That study predicted snow in the Alps could drop by 30 percent in 13 years, and 40 percent of Alps resorts could be shuttered within 25 years. Whistler "could find itself redundant as a winter sports destination by 2030," the report found, but higher American resorts may weather the warming.
"Resorts such as Breckenridge, Vail, Aspen, Lake Tahoe, Jackson Hole and Mammoth in the United States could find Europeans flocking to their slopes as the global climate changes," it said.
One key question, Henson said, is what effect global warming trends will have on precipitation in Colorado. Southern Colorado will likely see more drought, he said. Northern Colorado could see more precipitation.
"It's been unclear for some time whether Colorado's precipitation will go up or down," he said.
More snow could come to some areas, though, helping make up for what is expected to be a shorter ski season as shoulder seasons get warmer. Henson predicted March snow accumulations could drop by a quarter to a half by the middle of the century.
But even if more precipitation comes, it may not mean less drought, he said, as the moisture gets sucked out of the earth faster.
"No matter how you slice it, drought is going to be a problem in Colorado," he said.
Recent trends may offer a glimpse of what's to come. Last ski season saw a drought in the Alps in January, forcing many ski competitions to cancel. East Coast ski areas saw business down 7 percent due to an unusually weak snow year. The previous season, many Pacific Northwest resorts closed in January -- their worst season on record.
"The transition to a more arid climate should already be under way," Henson said, and 2007 seems set to be the warmest on record.
The challenges of global warming aren't new to the ski industry. Aspen has been outspoken on the issue, most recently dedicating part of its ad campaign to the threats of global warming. It has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions and goaded other resorts to join in.
Some have, including Steamboat and Vail, which have increased their use of wind power.
"It's a challenge we as a society face and we as a ski industry recognize," said Rob Perlman, CEO of Colorado Ski Country USA.
(© 2007 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.)